Introduction | Chapter 2 | |||||

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An experimentalist, never content to accept what a cocky theoretician states as fact, picks up the die and starts to roll it. He rolls the die a number of times, and carefully records the results of each throw.

Let us first dispel the myth that there is such a thing as an ideal
sequence of random numbers. If the experimentalist threw the die 6
times and got 6 "one"s in a row, he would be very upset at the die. If
the same experimentalist threw the same die a billion times in a row and
never got 6 "one"s in a row, he would again be very upset at the die.
The fact is a truly random sequence will exhibit local nonrandomness.
Therefore, a subsequence of a sequence of random numbers is not
necessarily random. We are forced to conclude that no one sequence of
"random" numbers can be adequate for every application.

A single throw of the die is called a "chance experiment" and is designated by the capital letter E. An outcome of a chance experiment E is designated by the Greek letter zeta . If there is more than one possible outcome of the chance experiment, (as there always will be, else the analysis becomes trivial), the different possible outcomes of the chance experiment are designated by , ... The set of all possible outcomes of a chance experiment is called the "Universal Set" or "Sample Space", and is denoted by the capital letter S.

For the die throwing experiment E, we have:

Chance experiment:

E: one throw of the die

Possible outcomes:

= side with one dot ends facing up

= side with two dot ends facing up

= side with three dot ends facing up

= side with four dot ends facing up

= side with five dot ends facing up

= side with six dot ends facing up

= side with two dot ends facing up

= side with three dot ends facing up

= side with four dot ends facing up

= side with five dot ends facing up

= side with six dot ends facing up

Sample Space (or Universal Set):

S = {
,
,
,
,
,
}

We now define the concept of a "random variable". A random variable is a function which maps the elements of the sample space S to points on the real number line RR. This is how we convert the outcomes of a chance experiment E to numerical values. The random variable function is denoted by a capital X. An actual value a random variable X takes on is denoted by a lowercase x.

A natural random variable function X to define for the die rolling
experiment is:

X( ) = 1.0

X( ) = 2.0

X( ) = 3.0

X( ) = 4.0

X( ) = 5.0

X( ) = 6.0

X( ) = 2.0

X( ) = 3.0

X( ) = 4.0

X( ) = 5.0

X( ) = 6.0

Note that the faces of a standard die are marked with this random variable function X in mind. The number of dots showing on the top face of the die corresponds to the value the function X takes on for that particular outcome of the experiment.

We now consider the generation of a random sequence of numbers
by repeating a chance experiment E a number of times. This can be
thought of as a single n-fold compound experiment, which can be
designated by:

E x E x . . . x E | = En |

(N times) |

The sample space or universal set of all possible outcomes for our compound experiment En is the Cartesian product of the sample spaces for each individual experiment E:

Sn = | S x S x . . . x S |

(N times) |

Any particular result of a compound experiment En will be an ordered set of elements from set S. For example, if E is the die throwing experiment, then the elements of set Sn for rolling the die N times are:

Sn = { | { | , | , | , | , | , | }, | |

{ | , | , | , | , | , | }, | ||

{ | , | , | , | , | , | }, | ||

. | . | . | . | . | . | |||

. | . | . | . | . | . | |||

. | . | . | . | . | . | |||

{ | , | , | , | , | , | } } |

The total number of elements in Sn is equal to the number of elements in S raised to the Nth power. For the die throwing experiment, there are 6 possible outcomes for the first throw, 6 possible outcomes for the second throw, etc. so the total number of possible outcomes for the compound experiment En is:

6 * 6 * . . . * 6 | = 6**N = |Sn| |

(N times) |

The probability of any particular element in Sn is equal to the product of the probabilities of the corresponding elements from S which together comprise the element in Sn. If each element of S is equally likely, then each element of Sn is equally likely. Which translated means if each possible outcome of experiment E is equally likely, then each possible outcome of experiment En is equally likely. For our die throwing experiment, each of the 6 possible outcomes for throwing the die once is equally likely, so each of the 6**N possible outcomes for throwing the die N times is equally likely.

We can now take our random variable function X and apply it to each of the N outcomes from our compound experiment En. This is how we convert the outcome of experiment En into an ordered set of N random variables:

( X1, X2, ..., Xn )

In this way each specific element of our sample space Sn can be transformed into a set of n ordered real values. We will use a lowercase letter x to denote specific values that a random variable function X takes on. So the results of a specific compound experiment En when transformed into specific real values would look something like this:

( x1, x2, ..., xn )

For example, if we rolled a die N times we might get the result:

( 3, 5, 2, 6, ..., 4 ) |

(N times) |

Then again, if we rolled a die N times we might get the result consisting of all ones:

( 1, 1, 1, 1, ..., 1 ) |

(N times) |

The first result looks somewhat like what we would expect a sequence of random numbers to be. The second result consisting of all ones however tends to make us very unhappy. But, and here is the crux,

We are forced to conclude, therefore, that our idea of a good sequence of random numbers is more than just anything you might get by repeatedly performing a random experiment. We wish to exclude certain elements from the sample space Sn as being poor choices for a sequence of random numbers. We accept only a subspace of Sn as being good candidates for a sequence of random numbers. But what is the difference between a good sequence of random numbers and a bad sequence of random numbers?

For our die rolling experiment, if we believe the die to be fair, and roll the die N times, then we know all possible sequences of N outcomes are equally likely to occur. However, only a subset of those possible outcomes will make us believe the die to be fair. For example, the sequence consisting of all ones {1,1,...,1} is as equally likely to occur as any other sequence, but this sequence tends not to reinforce our assumption that the die is fair. A good sequence of random numbers is one which makes us believe the process which created them is random.

Introduction | Chapter 2 | |||||

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